The calculations behind Putin’s support

Putin gets to be a good guy, at very little cost to himself

During his India visit, Russian President Vladimir Putin came out strongly in support of India’s bid for a permanent seat (with veto powers) on the UN Security Council, leaving his hosts happy enough.

Siberian Light reveals a shrewd calculation behind Putin’s bold statement of support.

These are pretty strong words from Putin. He has effectively committed Russia to publicly promoting the introduction of more veto-holding powers into the Security Council. Why on earth would he do that, and risk diluting Russia’s influence on the Council?

Because he has (correctly) judged that there is no way India, or any other country, will get a veto on the Security Council. There is no way that all five permanent members will, at the same time, willingly agree to dilute their power by giving the veto to even more countries. It simply isn’t in their interests. Ever.

Primarily though, Putin has judged that the US is, at the moment, strongly opposed an increase in the number of countries holding a veto vote. This means that Putin can stand in opposition to the US without any risk of such a major Security Council reform ever coming to pass. If it ever did come to a vote, the US would simply use its veto, and Putin would be able to come up smelling of roses as the guy who promoted the interests of the little guy.

For once, Putin is in a win-win situation. [Siberian Light]

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