The blogosphere’s first information futures market
Consider this. Someone promises to pay you 100 bucks on 1st Jan 2006 if Saurav Ganguly is replaced as India’s cricket captain by 31st Dec 2005 (or pay you nothing if Ganguly stays on). To avail of this opportunity, you must first pay him some amount between 0 and 100 bucks now. How much would you pay?
Now, if you are reasonably sure that he’ll be asked to step down by the end of the year, you’ll realise that you can make a profit as long as you purchase this promise at any price less than a 100 dollars. On the other hand, if you are not at all sure, you’ll try to purchase it at an extremely low price. In other words, you will try to buy it at a price that reflects how probable, in your personal opinion, the eventuality is of Ganguly being replaced as skipper.
An exciting branch of economic theory suggests that when the individual opinions of a large number of people is put together — in the form of a ‘futures’ market for predictions — the collective opinion can be rather accurate in predicting actual outcomes. The most famous case, of course, is that of the University of Iowa’s Electronic Markets (IEM), that has consistently outperformed opinion polls in predicting the outcome of US presidential elections.
But what happens when the predictive potential of free-markets is combined with the vibrancy and the opinionatedness of the blogosphere? The answer is PublicGyan – The Public Knowledge Exchange.
Will India secure a seat on the UN Security Council? Will the BJP and its allies come to power in this month’s elections in Bihar? Will Rahul Gandhi become prime minister (god forbid) by 2010? Will an Indian set foot on the moon by 2020? And of course, will India’s most successful cricket captain lose his captaincy by end-2006? Not only can you help find out the answers to these questions (and many more) on PublicGyan, you can actually help the community improve its estimate.
Anyone can join and become a trader on PublicGyan (you’ll need an invite, but more of that later). The Exchange gives you some funds to start off with. And if you are a blogger, you can convert your ‘blog karma’ into more funds. PublicGyan does not use real money. The moolah you use to trade on the PublicGyan exchange are not dollars, but ‘moolers’.
You can use your moolers to buy shares in various predictions. “Saurav Ganguly resigns” (SGANGULY-28) is selling at 90 moolers right now. If you buy one share of SGANGULY-28 at 90 moolers today, you will receive 100 moolers if he resigns; and lose 90 moolers if he does not. Guess why it is selling at 90 moolers today?
So how do you sign-up? For the time being, PublicGyan is open to new users on an invite-only basis. If you’d like an invitation, ask around — many of the Indian blogosphere’s best bloggers may be able fix you up with one. Or you could request for one by leaving a comment below and if you are using your real email address (in the email field below), Mr Turing Bluespan can decide to give you one.
PublicGyan was conceived after a reading of James Surowiecki’s excellent book – The Wisdom of Crowds, published in 2004. And Srijith weaved some magic with his code.
Robin Hanson covers the concept in some detail, while Chris Masse has one of the best collections of links. Wikipedia’s article on prediction markets is very helpful. But Mr Anand Bakshi showed considerable foresight when he wrote, in 1974: “Yeh Public Hai, Yeh Sab Jaanti Hai…” (trans. the public knows everything).
The PublicGyan blog is an excellent way to keep in touch with the latest news, discussions and prediction IPOs on the PublicGyan Exchange.
This sounds very interesting and I would like an invite. Please oblige 🙂
This will rock. All the best, Nitin.
Please hook me up
Who is Mr Turing Bluespan?
Cool name btw – you sure have some imagination!
Nitin,
Do you remember the Policy Analysis Market that was being hatched in the Pentagon back in 2003? I recall reading a quote in a Slate article that stated
qqq
How can we expect rational people to make sound bets on minds that may be unsound?
http://slate.msn.com/id/2086315/
yyy
Ganguly’s mind may not have hit the unsound level of Saddam or Mullah Omar…..but then………? May be the PublicGyan site will help BCCI committee honchos including Gavaskar, Ravi Shastri gauge goings-on at the rational level!
Swami
I’d definitely like an invite!
Thanks much,
G.
I would like an invite, please.
How can I get an invite pls?
An invite plz. Thank you!
Who is Turing Bluespan?
A cross between Alan Turing and Alan Greenspan.
nitin a invite for me please.
Sure, I need an invite.
btw, I am Jagadish’s (cricket24x7) friend.
Atanu,
It a particularly creative long-distance conversation with Srijith that resulted in the birth of Mr Bluespan. He is both and none. He is the system 🙂
An Invite !! Please !!
AN INVITE PLEASE !!!! PLZ SEND IT TO bharath12345@yahoo.com
an invite, please. thank you.
Interesting to note that a few Google employees also developed a system to internally predict product launch dates etc.,
And of course, invite please.
Thanks.
Can I get an invite? Please!!
Can I get an invite also ?
Please, Sir, may I have an invite? *holds out notebook for a double helping*
J.A.P.
Interesting! Could you pls send an invite? Thx!
I would like an invite please if it is still available.
its nice to have this kind of opinion simulator..
coming days will show how much accurately it can emitate the realty..
well i would like to be a perticipator..
thanks
Got the inviate. Thanks
I would love to get an invite. Willing to trade Gmail invites, if you don’t have one already.
an invite, please? thank you. awaiting the invite. i will get an invite, right. yep, i need that invite. so where’s that invite? cheers, a
This sounds really enticing… gambling without guilt!
Can you bless me with an invite also, please?
I would like an invite too. Thanks.
Awesome concept. Invite me please.
Sourin
I think its a great idea. I had been reading about the commodities futures market recently and I think this information futures would be a cool thing to play with. An invite please.
Thanks
Gosh, this seems so exciting. An invite, please? 🙂 Thanks!
Ive been searching for quite some time now for an invite code. If I could get one that would be great! 🙂 If not, maybe you could direct me to a place that has invites available. . .