The clash of convictions and the remaking of the world of wars

The outcome of modern wars is decided in the mind

Armed combat, of course, is not about to disappear, although it may increasingly take the form of ‘asymmetric warfare’ as seen in Iraq and Afghanistan. It could also take the shape of proxy war, like the one India is fighting in Jammu & Kashmir and the United States and NATO are fighting in Afghanistan. But days in which armed combat alone decided the fate of wars ended a long time ago: with World War II and perhaps, the India-Pakistan war of 1971.

This is old hat. All out war became unimaginable as soon as the major powers acquired nuclear weapons. Those that didn’t have their own usually came under the umbrella of one of those that did. The game of nuclear deterrence—in spite of bizarrely escalating to the level where there were thousands of warheads—kept the peace. The stability/instability paradox argued that while nuclear deterrence ensured stability at the highest (nuclear) level of escalation, it nevertheless created instability at lower (non-nuclear) levels. The United States relied on this to drive the Soviets out of Afghanistan. But the Pakistani general staff realised just how low the ceiling was at Kargil in 1999-2000. It worked so long as they were only arming and injecting jihadis into Jammu & Kashmir. But when they decided to take a step further and actually try to capture and hold territory, they quickly found out exactly where the buck stopped.

But the outcome of most of these asymmetrical, low-intensity wars can go either way. The larger and more powerful combatant uses a fraction of its total available strength in these conflicts and can theoretically fight hard enough to destroy its opponent in short order if it can somehow accept the massive collateral damage that this will result in. Theoretically, it can also fight long enough to frustrate the opponent into defeat if it can somehow stay in there. Armed combat is a tool in this war, a sort of a meta-weapon that a state deploys in some fronts. It can, at times, produce decisive results—but is bounded by whether it is given the time and resources to have a chance of doing so.

By most definitions of victory, India won the Kargil war in 1999. But it miserably failed in the battle (yes, it was a battle) of Kandahar in 2000, when the NDA government gift-wrapped and hand-delivered the ransom that Pakistan sought. India is committed for the long-haul in Kashmir: and despite the Manmohan Singh government’s confused vacillations, this is unlikely to change. Over in Assam though, the commitment to defeat ULFA waxes and wanes. Meanwhile, India’s military intervention in Sri Lanka in the late 1980s is seen as a failure causing an overreaction that has made subsequent governments reluctant to use force in the neighbourhood. The United States too lost in Viet Nam, won in Afghanistan (in the 1980s), in Iraq (in 1990). It now stands on the verge of losing Afghanistan II and Iraq II. In almost all these cases India and the United States were the stronger, better-equipped combatants. Yet they lost some and they won some. Why?

Because the outcome of the war was decided not on the battlefield. It was decided in a battle of minds, in a battle of collective resolve and in a battle in the court of public opinion. Kargil was won because Indians were overwhelmingly in support of the cause. For the same reason, India is prosecuting the long war in Kashmir. Kandahar was lost because public opinion was manipulated into ‘saving the hostages at all costs’. In Sri Lanka and periodically in Assam, domestic public opinion was against the further use of force. Similar reasons apply to the United States in its Iraqi and Afghan outings.

That public opinion matters is not new. Public support for the cause and morale during the war itself were always important. What is new is that the outcome of the war itself is increasingly decided by public opinion—with all its uncertainties, vagaries, whims and susceptibility to manipulation. Of course, this has been true in authoritarian states and closed societies for a long time, where the outcome is unquestionably what the regime says it is. In democratic societies with a free (and freewheeling media) the outcome of wars is becoming what public opinion says it is.

This poses a special challenge to open and secular democracies where there is no supremacist religion or ideology that has an irrational hold on the mind, and the media is more susceptible to manipulation by cynicism, populism or worse, by enemy interests. Indeed, technological change has shifted the control over mass media from the government to corporations and eventually, to citizens themselves. No longer can governments use their exclusive control of the “channels” to spread their “message”.

What this means, in effect, is that citizens have become combatants in the war of convictions. The side that believes that it has won wins. The side that believes it has lost loses. It is misleading to think of this as being about propaganda or public relations theatre, which though important, can be exposed or seen through. It is about truth, not necessarily the objective truth, but what is widely regarded to be true. The study of how public opinion forms has become all the more important. What instruments should the state have to fight this war? How should it equip its citizens? More importantly, what are the rules of the game? Is it even possible to ‘win’ wars any more?

Centuries ago, war was all out combat between one group against another; the distinction between combatants and non-combatants came later as a moral upgrade to that ugly business. Wars then largely became contests between armed forces of countries (although non-combatants continued to be killed). In the nuclear era, war became a game played by the strategic elite. The war of the future may go back a full circle—pitting entire populations, combatants and non-combatants alike in a complex clash of convictions.

Update: An interesting discussion on this post over at Winds of Change.

10 Responses to The clash of convictions and the remaking of the world of wars

  1. Prasanna 11th December 2006 at 12:39 #

    Hi Nitin

    Stunning post.Awesome analysis

    I vividly remember the days following Kandahaar hijacking.

    The ugly drama staged by Brinda Karat and her cohorts .And how her brother-in-law newschannel whipped up the emotion.I guess Vajpayee ‘s birthday was around the corner and you could hear screams like “He will have hands stained with the blood of his people on his bday” or something to that effect

    And the so-called nationalist government meekly caved in.

    Going by that experience one would be tempted to suggest Putin like measures like total blackout and shutting down of media during crisis like that.

  2. Nitin 11th December 2006 at 13:30 #

    Thanks Prasanna,

    Going by that experience one would be tempted to suggest Putin like measures like total blackout and shutting down of media during crisis like that.

    Open societies will find it impossible to do this. And even if it were possible, shutting down the media may not necessarily help shape public opinion in the manner that the governments desire. This applies to authoritarian states too, but perhaps less so.

    Figuring out how to prevail in this environment might just be the central strategic challenge of the next few decades.

  3. sudhir 11th December 2006 at 23:30 #

    Amazing.

    David Blue (over at winds of change) ‘gets it’. The more sophisticated, cosmopolitan, ‘secular’, liberal, niceguy types won’t because they don’t want to see the truth. They and the media that acters to them are willy-nilly complicit in hollowing our civilization’s defences.

    Mark Steyn makes the Demography point stunningly, brilliantly, beautifully and devastatingly in his latest masterpiece ‘America alone’. So devastatingly in fact that his critics have practically surrendered. They have no facts to rebut him with and can only make do with ad-hominem attacks that don’t stick.

    Europe, Russia and Japan are entering the terminal phase of demographic suicide. America and India 20 yrs down the line (along with smaller islands of freedom such as Israel and Australia) will have to bear the cross of freedom against the coming islamist tide. The coming war will be the bloodiest in history (Duh, no prizes for predicting that one). And I pray the good guys (our side, the free peoples, call us what you will) will be ruthless enough when push comes to shove.

    In some ways, in darker days and moods I sometimes wonder if islam doesn’t deserve to win? Its nature’s way after all, ain’t it? In some sort of an ideological Darwinism, the process of natural selection may yet pick islam in the coming struggle for survival of the fittest (strongest?) faith. Just look at what islam does to free peoples and you know the answer – Afghanistan was Busshist once, as was Indonesia hindu. They are now lost forever. Soon, Europe will be too in the darkness of Eurabia. What will happen of India? Only time will tell.

  4. history_lover 12th December 2006 at 01:35 #

    sheesh
    Is this guy sudhir for real ? Hyperventilating paranioa at its most (pathetic) best
    coming islamist tide ? Israel an island of freedom ?

  5. Apollo 12th December 2006 at 02:21 #

    Excellent analysis sudhir.

    Sheesh

    is this guy history_lover for real? Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Iran, islands of freedom?

  6. Vivek Kumar 12th December 2006 at 05:23 #

    Nitin, Superb Essay. You simply *must* write more on this.

  7. sudhir 12th December 2006 at 05:26 #

    Tks, Apollo. Like I said:
    “The more sophisticated, cosmopolitan, ’secular’, liberal, niceguy types won’t because they don’t want to see the truth. They and the media that caters to them are willy-nilly complicit in hollowing our civilization’s defences.”

    The demographic story says it all. For Japan, Russia and the EU, the birthrate of ‘native’ peoples has far fallen below replacement. Perhaps it is too late to reverse that. The only ones breeding young blood are the muzlims. As an e.g., in 20 yrs starting the mid 80s, Malmo, Sweden’s third largest city, is now 1/3rds muzlim. And the proportion rises relentlessly. In Rotterdam, muzlims make up one HALF of the under-12 population. Tell me these are not facts? Tell me that in another 15 yrs things will get ‘better’ in continental Europe when the urnban areas are muzlim majority? It is no secret that the younger muzlims are much more radicalized than their parents were. Bosnia which was 44-38 Serb-muzlim turned 41-44 serb muzlim in the 90s partly sparking the civil war there. Europe may soon see a Balkans times 10, in its death throes.

    Genuine history lovers will notice parallels between the deniers and appeasers of Nazism before WWII and the consequences of their denial. Hitler openly says in mein kampf he hates jews and intends to kill all of them. “Surely he can’t mean that now, can he? Its just overblown rhetoric, now…” eh? Today you have an Ahmednejad openly proclaiming he’ll wipe israel off the map. Overblown rhetoric again, I’m sure. Surely he can’t mean that now, can he?

    But hey, you don’t have to listen. See, you can go back to imagining all is hunky-dory et al. Go back to watching Paris Hilton’s latest escapades or the latest controversy on American Idol. At the same time suppress everything that points to the izlamist menace. (Typical big media stance). And call folks who raise these politically incorrect interpretations of demographic and other graphic facts ‘hyperventialting paranoids’ etc etc. (Yes, Oriana fallaci, Bate Yeoir, Robert Spencer all have been called racists, paranoids, defamers of islam and more, been threatened physically and honded legally for pointing to the facts and speaking their mind. Van Gogh gets beheaded, the Pope gets threatened oopenly. It is the pattern I point to). Time will tell who was paranoid and who was in denial.

    /Have a nice day.

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. DesiPundit » Archives » The Changing Nature of Warfare - 11th December 2006

    […] Nitin examines the changing nature of warfare and the role of public opnion. […]

  2. INI Signal - » Not All Wars Are Soft Wars - 12th December 2006

    […] Nitin Pai, at The Acorn, writes that the nature of wars is changing and that it is now a clash of convictions. While I don’t disagree with his analysis, I think it applies only to certain type of wars. I think traditional wars will still be fought and won.  […]

  3. The Acorn » Moisi’s global clash of emotions - 15th December 2006

    […] does this imply for a world in which the outcome of wars is decided by what you think it to be? Permalink | « Things that go Rauf in thecourt | Home |  […]

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