Apparently we are giving all intelligence of recent blasts to ISI during the joint anti-terro mechanism to make them act. I’m sure they will right away.

I am more inclined to believe in the good cop-bad cop routine. History can serve as a guide here. Look at the Kargil conflict. It’s hard to believe that Sharif had no idea about Kargil when one month after full-scale hostilities had broken out, Miyan Sharif was busy playing cricket! (As Ayaz Amir has informed us.) Or go back a little. In 1965, Ayub Khan ordered hostilities in the Rann of Kutch, then signed the agreement for an international tribunal while all the time planning for Operation Grandslam. The same man later signed the Tashket agreement, promptly went home and declared that war has not been ruled out to settle the question of Kashmir.

Bottom line: I don’t trust the Pakistanis.

What has really changed is that the good cop-bad cop routine is now played by different players!

But even if you are entirely right, the crucial question is this: If nuclear bombs were to fall in Hamid Gul’s hands, will he necessarily go and use them.I may not trust them but I do trust their instinct for self-preservation. The nuclear blackmail can only succeed if the other party obliges you by playing your game. Perhaps, India and the rest of the world shouldn’t be so nice to the Pakistanis.

I think we can agree that al-Qaeda (defined as Arab/Middle Eastern organisations) is giving the Pakistani army headaches and attention it can do without. However, thanks to the Islamisation under Zia, as well as the anti-American feelings within the organisation, it is quite likely that there are differences within the army about whether they should indeed jettison it. Another factor working against breaking the links would be the consequences of doing so: what if the next Bin Laden videotape explains what role the Pakistani army played in 9/11? He can’t be placed under house arrest in a villa outside Islamabad. Or what if al-Qaeda decides to direct its ire against the army itself…it’ll find allies in the religious fundamentalists who have an axe to grind against Musharraf. (Maverick contends that this split is significant). Those running the Pakistani army will be weighing in these considerations.

There’s the little business of the Pakistani army needing the jihadis because the official army is busy running the country, running business and cornering land. And I say this only half jokingly.

To me al-Qaeda is a liability to Pak Army only because it brings attention on to it from the west- press, govts whatever. Without them, Pak’s Army live would have been very peachy. Still in control of Afghan via Taliban and still waging jihad against India – watching and enjoying cut number 356, maybe.

Now, Osama brings up Hindus along with Jews and Christians as infidels in his occasional ramblings. As Praveen Swami wrote in The Hindu couple of days ago, we’re all in the same boat and they’re all swimming in the same stinking ocean waiting to torpedo the boat.

Up until early 2007, I was of the same opinion as you. But developments of the last one year suggest that the internal pressures of the military establishment have resulted in a schism—one has only to look at the Waziristan and Lal Masjid operations in detail to realise how the two factions are conducting a proxy civil war. Just how does a SSG officer blow up his colleagues in the middle of the special forces base at Tarbela? (Read Maverick for more)

That’s not to say that Musharraf is innocent: he’s a rank opportunist and has been playing double games all along. And he’ll do it again if he can get away with it. So yes, he is a player India must deal with.

Chandra,

Musharraf was the brigade commander who revived Osama Bin Laden’s fortunes after the anti-Soviet jihad ended in the late 1980s. Bin Laden’s jihadis were used to bring the Shia’s of Gilgit to heel, under Musharraf’s command. Musharraf’s hand was present in the ‘raising’ of the Harkat-ul-Ansar in the mid-1990s. And after the IC-814 hijacking, the Jaish-e-Mohammed was born when he was controlling Pakistan. Oh yes, Musharraf was thick with al-Qaeda until circumstances forced them apart.

Whether al-Qaeda leadership is a liability to the Pakistani army, I can’t say. It is The Big Question. We don’t know much about what makes Gul & Co tick? We used to think Musharraf was joined at the hip with the jihadis up until 9/12. If he could (at least pretend to) do a u-turn, why shouldn’t the next Musharraf? On the other hand, what’s to prevent the next Musharraf from putting nuclear material in the hands of terrorists…It’s important to understand where things stand with Gul & Co.

Shashi,

The answer has to be yes. Negotiating with a gun to its own head is an old Pakistani act, and there are bound to be individuals and factions ready to milk the Americans and enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts.

“Musharraf’s culpability in the creation of al-Qaeda and the launch of Bin Laden’s career is almost never covered in the Western or even Indian media”

I am not sure there is any there. Taliban (Gul & co controlled beast for Afghan) and al-Qaeda are different beasts, separate from other ISI controlled beasts for Bharat. al-Qaeda takes orders from no one. Saudis fund it and Egyptians run it. They could care less about Pak. At least until recently. Now they are looking for strategic space within Land of Pure (is there a better place) and they get nuclear fries with that. What’s not to like?

In fact Gul & co and Gen Mush would be very happy if they can get rid of al-Qaeda and just have Taliban and these other beasts facing east. They can then chock ‘em when they want and unleash ‘em when they want. Saudi money (and British numb-skull suicide imports) of al-Qaeda are making their life very difficult. Now the situation is all muddled. Everyone is against everyone else.

Unless Pak cleans house, blow back will be felt on our shores along with the west. But the west can protect themselves. Apparently we don’t want to. So we’ll take the brunt of LoP collapse. Pakistanis may suffer but it’ll be more like Taliban’s Afghan (ie Land of Pure, the original intent comes true!) rather than a nuclear bomb in infidel’s Mumbai or Delhi. What would one do then? Attack al-Qaeda?

I don’t know. I think its just a propaganda that there is a military/intelligence/jihadi network that exists in Pakistan which is working against Musharraf. No Pakistani ruler and definitely not Musharraf has been able to take the whole Pakistani establishment together. There are a zillion players who have their own agenda (mentoring a tribe, group, self-interest) and they all work at cross purposes.

I think the media simply clubs these people as some sort of regime taking on Musharraf. Its just the inherent inertia in the system. I would call it a regime, if it can work together and accomplish anything against the official Musharraf regime. The genuine failures of the Pakistani military in its fight against the militants are passed on as some conspiracy.

– is there another Musharraf i.e. someone who wants his shot at power but will still play ball with the Americans

or an Ahmedenijad who may have popular support with the fundamentalists but will not necessarily play ball with the americans

or both ?

With due respect, I think Dr Cohen is stating the obvious; and as for the co-operation bit, he is stating a cliche. As I wrote in the comment to Balaji, the US has greater leeway in what they want to believe, (and what they think we should believe and do in order to fit reality to their theory).

The Musharraf-Benazir combo has some very testing times ahead.

Two regimes are the objective reality. It is Musharraf-Benazir-Kiyani that is the theory that needs to be proved. The US has a greater leeway to believe in hopeful fantasies than India.

I don’t think you are making lot of sense in this post. Your two regime theory may become a reality several months down the line when Benazir is in saddle. But for now, I don’t think India or US have any doubt which group they are handling with or they should be. If India and US fail to help Musharaff/Benazir/Kiyani/Chaudhry’s combination to atleast come into existence, your two regime theory may not even materialize. As of today there is not a single regime there. Neither the facade nor the underground.