What’s Left?

Not respect for the office of Prime Minister. Not even courtesy

The Communists didn’t even wait for the Prime Minister to come back from his trip to Toyako, where he is meeting G8 leaders. They just pulled the rug. And that should be the least bit surprising. A bunch of people who never cared about India’s substantive interests can hardly be expected to care for symbolism.

Elections can’t be all that far away. It should now remain for the Indian voter to give the Communists the drubbing they deserve. Somewhere, one of history’s dustbins is waiting for them.

76 thoughts on “What’s Left?”

  1. After reading the article of Mr. Henry Sokolski in the WSJ (linked in #51 above) it appears that there are some grey areas in the 123 agreement / Safeguard agreement that both Indians and Americans feel are open to completely opposite interpretations & can be exploited for a perceived startegy of the parties.

    If this is so, then in such situations, only those who are powerful and can leverage power to their advantage come out winner.

    I just hope that Manmohan Singh and company have a plan that is documented to “leverage” India’s Power vis-a-vis the USA & otehrs to come out winner in this agreement should a contentious situation arise.

  2. Apparently the deal may not be ratified by US Congress, per Kessler in WaPo. But that doesn’t mean the deal is dead. I blog that it’s a lose for US, at this stage, if it doesn’t ratify and all the arguments of commies and BJP seem to be for nothing.

  3. Brahma Chellaney just published an analysis of the IAEA draft on his blog. Yes, it’s a complete disaster. See for yourselves:

    http://chellaney.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!4913C7C8A2EA4A30!634.entry

    But you can’t expect any better from CON-gressis, can you? MMS is the worst disaster of a PM since that original brown sahib Nehru. While Sonia is busy selling Hindu souls to the Vatican, MMS is busy turning India’s future into American slavery.

  4. Milind #52,

    The reality is the opposite of what you are hoping. It’s in fact the US that has created many options to gain leverage over India. Americans recognize that India will become a strong economic power in the next decade or so, which will automatically translate into more political and military power unless they do something to check it right now. That is why there is so much urgency on the part of the Bush Administration as well as a bipartisan consensus in Washington to ram this deal through. They must create the chains to shackle India before it becomes too powerful.

    It’s almost as if India is pre-IPO Google in 1998 and selling its shares for pennies to early investors. Americans are like the savvy investors who are buying early and gaining control.

    Think about this – India has everything going for it: economic growth, demography, entrepreneurship, management savvy and all the rest of it. The trajectory is only going to be upward. With every passing year, India’s power and therefore leverage in negotiating with the US and the NSG can only grow.

    Just project the situation even 5 years from now: Indian economy would be so much bigger, energy infrastructure that much more advanced, fuel dependency that much less if generation is built on local sources such as coal, natural gas or wind, and a new generation of younger leaders will be that much more assertive.

    That’s why Americans want to negotiate, sign and seal the deal right now. They sensed an opportunity in seeing MMS as a weak PM who has nothing to show for as his legacy, so they swooped in on him. You can imagine what will happen if in the next 10 years Narendra Modi became the PM (yes, I dream of that day). Do you think any assertive leader would agree to having a deal that pretty well treats India as any other non-NWS under the NPT, imposes constraints on the weapons program, creates economic threat from tightly controlled fuel supply and continues to upohold India’s end of the Tarapore contract even after the Americans have reneged on it? It’s only the bootlicker of Sonia, Mr Electile Dysfunction to use this blog’s terminology, who has no power and nothing to show for his 5 years of rule who could’ve been tempted by this Trojan Horse of a deal to create his dubious legacy. This is nothing but US psy ops on a grand scale against India.

  5. Dear Mr. Gujjubhai,

    Your sense of conspiracy is reflective of a time in the 70’s when every horror in India was scapegoated on to the americans and the CIA. We have mercifully outgrown those times.

    This is a good deal. And to lose it would be a disaster for India.

    Shri Kakodkar, has already made two points very clear.

    – Indias energy requirement is projected at 1300 gigawatts by 2050. Without the nuclear deal, there would be a shortfall of 400 gigs. A further ten year delay means a shortfall of 180 gigs.

    – Secondly, Shri Kakodkar has also made explicitely clear that India’s weaponization program would not be affected. Military installations do not come under inspections and India can build a fuel reserve for strategic purposes in case of disruption.

    _________

    The Coal available in India is of degraded quality. The use of Coal as an energy resource also needs to be phased out due to its destructive impact. Natural gas reserves are currently are limited. Wind and Solar power do not have the volumes. You can light up homes, run the stove, light up an entire stadium with wind and solar, but you can’t run an entire industrial region on wind and coal.

    __________

    Once the deal passes, India is free to trade with NSG countries. Our scientific community would be unshackled as they can now have access to dual use technoligies denied for the past 30 years.

    Reactors would be imported from countries that offers the best competitive price. France and Russia are at the top of the list followed by the US.

    There is also an indigenous fast breeder reactor program that would most likely dominate the world market once fully operationalized. From importers, India would soon turn into an exporter of nuclear technology within 20 years.

    ___________

    Indians have tested the bomb twice. The yields have been calculated, the warheads have been developed, and are already deployed. However, currently we dont match China’s capacity, the principal threat along with pakistan, in terms of number of warheads and individual payload.

    Mr. Bharat Karnad has stated that Indians should go the whole distance and develop a 250 k+ hydrogen bomb. There is nothing stopping us to develop the device, and should contingency demand it, from testing it.

    In such a scenario, the NSG countries along with the principle USA would consider the situation and then act likewise. Blind imposition of sanctions and a complete rollback is highly unlikely as they have much to lose from commerce as we would. The hurt would be equal.

    Also, disregarding Indian security contingencies and impose sanctions would amount to nuclear blackmail. The entire purpose of the deal is to develop enough economic muscle that no country even dares.

    __________

    And lastly, I also wait for the greatest day. Mr. Modi as PM.

  6. “The yields have been calculated, the warheads have been developed, and are already deployed.”

    The yields were much lower at least in the case of the supposed thermonuclear weapon. The deployment of warheads is news to me. Where did you read that? Deployment of missiles and warheads are two separate things. We don’t even have a meaningful delivery weapon, no reliable nuke to mount on it and are completely exposed to China, which is what we need the nukes for.

    How do you develop warheads btw without testing weapons? There’s a huge difference between testing the bomb and having a nuclear weapon. Our missiles have to be bulky because the bomb design is huge. Such missiles–even the latest Agni is a variant of Russian SS-20 which was retired couple decades ago–take time to be fueled and loaded with weapon, crucial components that are at separated for safety, compounding the loading of weapons . Their accuracy is questionable without testing both together and due to the technology allegedly used for those Agni.

    The 4-5 Agni II that are said to be deployed have to be moved on Railways, which means they are highly vulnerable to sabotage and not exactly mobile. The sort of mobile launchers needed are missing. No efforts to acquire them so far.

    The biggest worry is the limits that this deal places on testing nukes. Increased economic dependence on nuclear power will make it almost impossible for us to venture into testing again. I doubt the articles of pro-dealers will save Indian lives in the meantime if and when China revisits us à la 1962.

  7. “Indians have tested the bomb twice. The yields have been calculated, …”

    How many times have the Americans carried a nuclear device test?

    1030 (1,125 nuclear devices detonated; 24 additional joint tests with Great Britain) between 1945 and 1992. – Source :www.brookings.edu

    This despite having a number of supercomputers and super scientists to do simulated tests.

    How many nuclear tests have the Chinese carried out?

    46 (Source: cns.miis.edu) between 1964 and 1996.

    Incidently this could be the least number of tests carried out by a so called Nuclear Weapons State.

    Compare these with the number of tests done by us. We have done TWO tests with some SIX devices detonated?

    All the talk that we do not need further tests because we can simulate on a computer are of no use. The reliability of these devices will depend on actual testing and then finalizing the designs.

    In Marathi, there is an old saying “Zakali Muth Savva Lakhachi” meaning a closed palm might be holding 1-1/4 lakhs (rupees). As long as the palm remains closed, we can keep the other person guessing.

    In case of our nuclear weapons, there is no closed palm. I am quite sure the Chinese or the Americans have a very fair idea of the level of our capability.

    If the Government & the scientific community believes that we do not need further tests, we might as well sign CTBT and NPT, get all the dual use technologies, nuclear power plants. Why do we need the 123 agreement and the conditionalities of it?

    But the fact is that we need more tests if we are to have a reliable design that can be delivered without any hitch & more importantly a design that would perform.

    We have to decide whether we need nuclear power for electricity AND RELIABLE nuclear weapons or only the Electricity (and of course some other alleged spin offs of dual use technologies etc.).

    The Chinese are quiet about this deal. They appear to support it. Pakistan also is quiet about it after some initial noises. This makes me uneasy.

    For once Prakash Karat might be correct in opposing this agreement.

  8. “The Chinese are quiet about this deal. They appear to support it. Pakistan also is quiet about it after some initial noises. This makes me uneasy.”

    The Chinese calm might also be a reflection of their pragmatism. Perhaps they have realized that US-India deal is a given, if not today then perhaps two yrs. later. I doubt the Marxists would go so far as to pull out if the Chinese were okay with the deal. In a book by David Shambaugh he quotes a Chinese official that China will look into Indian threat if and when India deploys missiles targeting them. And that their preparations for now were adequate, which is something around 750+ intermediate range missiles in the Tibetan plateau.

  9. > Modi has done a great job in reforming the electricity sector [Comment no 48]

    Not mentioning his great job in watching terrorism happen in Gujarat in 2002 and his great job in not punishing anybody for the carnage and his great job in encouraging hatred between religions. we should all dream of such a man as prime minister.

  10. Socal,

    According to reports available in the public domain, India roughly has about 100 to 150 bombs. These have been kept in both assembled and dissembled states.

    The triad of air, land and sea attack launch would be complete with the acquisition of Russian Akula II nuclear powered attack submarine by next year. The goal is to develop at least 5 such submarines in the next 10 years.

    There is also the deployment of Brahmos and the development of an anti-missile sheild in the form of Prithvi air defense and Advanced Air defense. All missiles built under the IGMDP has been successfully tested and deployed.

    The deployement of the anti-missile shield by 2010, India would be among four nations in the world to possess anti-ballistic capability.

    The road mobile launchers are very much present, all the testing of Agni-I have been conducted on road mobile launchers and two Mobile Autonomous Launchers for Brahmos would be inducted soon into the Indian army.

    A lot of Indian defenses against China is work in progress, but this does not mean that if the chinese revisit us again, they wont be given a strong reply.

  11. Milind,

    In a perfect world, Rajaji or Sardar Patel would have led India. In that perfect world, the historical blunders of the security council seat being refused by India {nehru offered it to china}, or the tibetan debacle, or missing the nuclear bus by not conducting the tests before 1968 would not have been Indias story.

    The members of this club have conducted nearly a thousand tests. India cannot emulate the same number of tests because defiance of the international system involves costs. We missed the bus. The implications, however painful, must be accepted.

    The two tests conducted have at least ensured a assured deterrence against one antagonist and a very limited one against the other. The drawback, as of now, is that we dont match the chinese firepower in terms of payloads, number of warheads and dispersed delivery systems. All future tests and development have factored these elements. The defence offsets policy is one step in this regard.

    ________

    The deal enables India to produce both power and continue with the strategic program. As for the – Reliability – of our weapons design, this is a canard that is being spread by some internet forums on defense. To question the unreliability of our weapons design is to promote this unfortunate loose talk.

    _________

    The opposition coming from Mr. Shourie and Mr. Chellaney is very different from the one coming from the commies. While the patriots believe that the deal is effectively locks down India into a strategic dead lock, Karat is batting for China and for a larger alliance with islamic countries against the US. It is a nihilistic dream, with destructive implications for Indian security.

    The left-islamic combines plan is to promote the Iran-Pak pipeline under the pretext of “energy reliance” and lock India down to a permanent strategic and political blackmail from both outside and within. Just the study of the pipeline route would suggest to any innocent that it is a nihilistic idea that only traitors like the left-islamic combine would promote.

  12. “A lot of Indian defenses against China is work in progress, but this does not mean that if the chinese revisit us again, they wont be given a strong reply.”

    These kind of assurances have been dime a dozen. The proverbial elephant in the room is how you deliver nukes with a large yield, since you don’t have MIRVs, to Chinese cities reliably.

    I insist on this because China uses the same threat about LA and that’s the language it certainly understands. China may or may not get a response if it invades us, I don’t know, but the best option for us is to ensure that China never invades us or clearly understands the cost of such a misadventure.

    The only way to achieve that is to have a reliable nuclear weapons program, and a complementary missile program. The only missile that is supposed to reach Beijing or Shanghai is the latest Agni, which is not deployed yet. It was successful once, has a large circular error, is bulky and doesn’t carry multiple warheads. And yet, it is still not deployed.

    Your assurances about the warhead reliability too ring hollow. The only thermonuclear test we conducted had a much lower yield that it should. An okay thermonuclear test should carry the yield in 100s of KT easily, otherwise it is simply a dirty thermonuke where the fusion didn’t go through, resulting in low yield and high radiation. It was probably a boosted fission bomb and not a fusion bomb.

    Contrast that with China which has ICBM’s pointed at LA that have upto 4 MT thermonuclear weapons i.e., 4000KT. Agreed that even that is obsolete and they did still MIRV technology in the last decade but still it’s good to put things in perspective.

    The only conclusion that I’m forced to draw is that our deterrence is neither minimal nor credible. And this treaty simply compounds that because we cannot conduct further tests without seriously affecting our progress.

    Nitin keeps saying that an economically powerful nation doesn’t have to fear sanctions etc., but look at Japan, a super-rich country, yet unable to unshackle itself from American influence. What’s the guarantee that we won’t be suckered up in a similar labyrinthine mess!

  13. Pankaj,
    As for the mobile launchers you might want to look up for the Ukrainian all-terrain ICBM launchers that China acquired recently. Look at their specs and let me know if you still think our mobile launchers are good enough for the job.

  14. Some good comments. My analysis crystallizes into just one conclusion: why are we giving up options and shackling ourselves into a situation that none of our major enemies is?

    1.Effectively, we are giving up the option to test weapons when nobody else has given that up. Even if we had a great nuclear weapons aresenal (which we don’t) and we never needed to test again (may or may not be true) there is no need to be a saint among the junglees and give up that option when nobody else has. Even if we never intend to test, just having the ability to threaten testing is useful. Testing is also useful for projection of power like we did in Pokhran II.

    2.We are giving up the option of becoming a full-fledged NWS and distinguish ourselves as a real superpower. To me, this is the clearest sign of how Indians have been out-negotiated in this deal. Remember the original statement in July 2005 when MMS said that the deal promises India will enjoy the same rights and benefits as an NWS – we will get everything except the label. Since then, every detail we have learnt about the deal, in fact, points to the exact opposite. Instead of gaining RIGHTS and the prestige that would come with becoming a de facto NWS, we are taking on OBLIGATIONS of non-NWS under the NPT and the CTBT. This is a huge step backward – instead of moving towards gaining parity with China and the rest of the P5, we are now being pushed down and becoming equivalent to the likes of Pakistan and North Korea.

    3.We have already given up the option of striking first via our “no first use” policy. We have also imposed a self-proclaimed moratorium on testing. Again, this reduces our operating freedom and the ability to threaten. Even if we never intend to strike first or test again, there is no need to publicly and morally bind ourselves to that. These options are important to have just in case. Note that no other nuclear power has taken on these silly self-imposed restrictions. Why in the world are we chaining ourselves like this? This is like trying to fiht with one hand tied behind your back – it is so unbelievably stupid.

    4.We are further creating a dependency on a cartel that is even tighter than the NSG. Apart from the strategic dependency, this also binds us to an expensive fuel source in which suppliers have too much power. So if we get feul, it will be expensive and if we don’t, our grid will be threatened with a blackout. How can this be a good thing? Electricity grid is much more vital and has immediate effect on the economy than oil. You can switch from driving a car to a scooter if there’s shortage of oil, or invest in public transport like metro to conserve oil. However, there’s nothing you can do if your grid is running out of power: it will immediately grind your economy into a halt. Creating strategic dependency on imported fuel creates a huge leverage over us. This is just a strategic suicide.

    If you look at the big picture, a clear pattern emerges. Instead of acting like a superpower that negotiates from a position of strength and continuing to work towards acquiring more power, India has been voluntarily ceding strategic space instead. This is an idiotic, suicidal policy that reeks of holier-than-thou Gandhian urge to become Satyavadi Raja Harishchnadra among the barbarians.

  15. Sorry, the line “We are further creating a dependency on a cartel that is even tighter than the NSG.” should be “We are further creating a dependency on a cartel that is even tighter than the OPEC”.

  16. And “Creating strategic dependency on imported fuel creates a huge leverage over us. ” should be “Creating strategic dependency on imported fuel from a strong cartel, as opposed to another fuel from a global free market like LNG, creates a huge leverage over us.”

  17. Gujjubhai,
    I believe that you were commenting on this issue at SepiaMutiny blog some time back. You seem to be passionate about this issue, so let us go through the scenarios that most concern you

    A.We decide to one more round of testing – this so infuriates the NSG that they collectively stop providing nuclear fuel – each and every one of them ( France, Russia etc). How much of our economy would be affected by this ? – remember nuclear power plants would not contribute to more than 25 to 30% of our total power even if this deal goes through and we start building power plants and maximize the use of the nuclear fuel.

    I realize that this is a very tough scenario for any country to face – but i have to ask this question again – why would a country(other than the US) ever want to do this – they are going to be losing money too, is it not ? And moreso ever doing so would put them in the pro-China camp even if they did not intend to – how many countries in the world are happy to see Chinese “peaceful rise” improve ?

    What does the US gain by this ? From your earlier posts, you were of the opinion that they were trying to “check” our power before we became more advanced economically – if they do want to check our power, they are contributing to China’s rise even more.

    I live in the US right now and believe me, the last thing any one here wants is to see China grow more powerful and that too at India’s expense. India’s image has improved, but the telling statistic of 300 million poor is enough for people to feel “sorry” for us – not threatened by our growth.

    There are enough poor people in India who live at or below the poverty levels to populate the entire USA. And worse, our population is going to grow to an estimated 1.8 BILLION by 2050. I shudder to even think of this number.

    Tell me again, how does a country that has 700 million lesser people today and struggles to provide opportunities for a good 80% of its citizens is going to be a super power in the next 4 decades when it has another 700 million – its simply unfathomable – if we remain a regional power, we would have done well.

    I think you are getting ahead of yourself when you say that our rise to superpower status is only a matter of time – it is ANYTHING but.

    I think that you do have a point in saying that we should not act Gandhian in a jungle full of vultures- but some thing tells me that the GOI has settled for this thing because they think that we cannot do any better and more importantly DO NOT WANT to be a rival to China.

  18. NS, the proof is in the pudding: if the US really did not want to see China rise at the expense of India then why are they imposing so many shackles on India through this deal, especially when they have signed a much better deal with China on the same issue? I don’t know what the US game plan with China is, but clearly making India sign up to so many constraints does not square up with your hypothesis, does it? If they really did want China not to benefit at the expense of India then the last thing they should do is impose any constraints on India’s nuclear weapons program which is primarily directed against the Chinese. However, the nuclear deal itself stands in contradiction to that.

    Secondly, remember that they don’t have to necessarily stop the fuel supplies to exercise leverage on India: just the threat of doing so is powerful enough. Which Indian leader will take the potential risk against the vitality of Indian economy if push came to shove and India wanted to test a weapon?

    As I said earlier, the whole game is about making sure that it becomes very expensive not to toe their line. It’s not that different from Microsoft’s FUD strategy: target the decision maker’s psychology and create enough fear, uncertainty and doubt to prevent them from taking a decision against your interests.

    Imagine a future Indian Prime Minister about to push the red button on a test in future who gets a call from the White House saying that the US may need to cut off India’s fuel supply under the provisions of the Hyde Act. Then imagine that an official Press Release from White house denies rumors of US considering India’s fuel supply – thereby creating fear and panic in India about exactly that possibility. What do you think will happen to India’s financial markets? And what do you think will happen to the ability of that future Indian PM to press that red button?

  19. Socal,

    These were some of the statements made by Indian officials after Pokhran II {11 May 1998} –
    Three explosions were needed to test three different kinds of weapons: a sub-kiloton device that could be fired as an artillery shell or dropped from a combat aircraft; a fission device that could be dropped from a bomber plane; and a thermonuclear design. According to Iyengar, the thermonuclear design contained only a small portion of tritium while most of its explosive force came from a fission device. The explosion showed that the “thermonuclear technology worked” and India does not need to “go for a megaton explosion while testing an H-bomb” unless it plans “for a total destruction of the opposite side.”

    India conducted two more sub-kiloton nuclear tests on 13th May 1998. A govt. press release
    states – that the tests were conducted “to generate additional data for improved computer simulation of designs and for attaining the capability to carry out sub-critical experiments, if considered necessary.”

    Source – http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/India/Nuclear/2296_2893.html

    __________

    Our reactors are currently running at half its capacity of nuclear fuel. The access to uranium markets via this deal would not only lead to an expansion of nuclear energy but also to the maximum augmentation of Indian resources for the strategic program.

    The deal has been negotiated together by the scientific community along with diplomats and the political leadership. To barter away ones capacity to test in an undeveloped strategic environment vis a vis china just for the sake of nuclear power seems to be a highly unlikely consensus amongst all these distinguished men. Indians should refuse to believe such a formulation.

    Subcritical testing and computer simulations are essential before the going into the final step of underground testing. This deal provides India the essential space to conduct them at an appropriate time in the future. And this time, there would also be a greater space to go the whole distance.

    Technology transfers and joint production with the defence offsets program would also lead to a missile system that is precise and lethal.

  20. “NS, the proof is in the pudding: if the US really did not want to see China rise at the expense of India then why are they imposing so many shackles on India through this deal, especially when they have signed a much better deal with China on the same issue?”

    I have to confess to two things – i dont know a whole lot about the deal that the US has with China or any specific details about it. But one thing is for sure, the US could not have had as many restraints on this deal as they have with us ,simply because China is already a recognized nuclear weapons state and as you have pointed out already have missiles capable of reaching Los Angeles – so the US was plainly looking at the business side of things and was betting that China was not going to use this for its nuclear arsenal and was going to use this for domestic electricity generation only.

    Second, there is a very powerful non-proliferation lobby in the US that STRONGLY opposes the deal with India – in fact they say that the US “has given away a lot” without getting much from India in return. This is of course a bit of hyperbole, but i would say that some of these strong restrictions in the deal was meant to be a pacifier to these cry babies more than any thing else.

    If you really do not want the deal to go through in its present state, pray that Barack Obama wins the elections – he introduced a poison pill amendment in the Senate last year that would have killed
    the deal. Currently, he has flip-flopped and says that he supports the deal in the current form, but you can count on Obama to raise some drama once he becomes President. He is a guy who more ready to deal with Iran than with India.

    “I don’t know what the US game plan with China is, but clearly making India sign up to so many constraints does not square up with your hypothesis, does it? If they really did want China not to benefit at the expense of India then the last thing they should do is impose any constraints on India’s nuclear weapons program which is primarily directed against the Chinese. However, the nuclear deal itself stands in contradiction to that.”
    Let’s take your hypothesis that this deal itself is so anti-Indian because all these restrictions are meant to effectively cap India’s nuclear weapons deal – what does the US gain out of this ? They see China as a bigger problem and a bigger threat.

    So this all boils down to whether you think the US will actively enforce the restrictions on this deal – there are enough people here who think that the US wants to prop up India to contain China and will not raise a hue and cry when India does a test. India’s nuclear weapon program is now not even a threat to China as you contend – we may not even have the advanced technology to weaponize – so how does the US care if India does another round of testing ?

    On the contrary there are people like you who think that these restrictions and conditions and the very threat of enforcing them are enough indications of the true nature of US intentions.

    “Secondly, remember that they don’t have to necessarily stop the fuel supplies to exercise leverage on India: just the threat of doing so is powerful enough. Which Indian leader will take the potential risk against the vitality of Indian economy if push came to shove and India wanted to test a weapon?

    “As I said earlier, the whole game is about making sure that it becomes very expensive not to toe their line. It’s not that different from Microsoft’s FUD strategy: target the decision maker’s psychology and create enough fear, uncertainty and doubt to prevent them from taking a decision against your interests.”

    I will end my argument this way – there is nothing certain about how the US will react to another round of testing – they may do the very thing that you say – but for them to do it, it also means that they are more concerned about India’s weapons capabilities than about China’s power which you readily admit is better than ours with respect to the economy, weapons program.

    My experience here in the US, especially with the flurry of literature on “how to Deal with China’s rising power” tells me that they are more concerned about the Chinese Government and see India as more of an ally that will never challenge their supremacy.

    But thank you Gujjubhai for sharing your opinions without flying into a fit of rage or calling me an American agent/bootlicker. Unfortunately, its some what difficult to have a respectful debate on an issue such as this which arouses a lot of passion from both sides.

  21. Pankaj,

    I will respond to your post later today, but I wish to point it out that claims of our scientists about the thermonuclear tests don’t seem to be right. Just the way those bombs are built, a successful test by its very definition means a high-yield fission-fusion-fission reaction easily taking it in the 100s of KT range. I don’t doubt the claims about the sub-kiloton range tactical nukes(fission reaction) tested in Pokhran II, but by most indicators that hydrogen bomb did not work. It would be awful for India to place its faith on a design based on one dubious test. The door for further tests is virtually closed with the deal and that’s what I find extremely disturbing.

  22. Yes, the Left has gone back on it’s word of not withdrawing support before the G8 ends. Disapppointing. Thankfully, their influence has reduced as they are back in the opposition now.

  23. Thank you all for a fine discussion. In my final comment on this thread, I am going to leave with only one thought for all of those who think that the economic benefits of this deal outweigh the military sacrifices. Those who think that gaining access to energy at the expense of restraints on strategic program will do well to ponder over the history of our fine civilization.

    Friends, every time we the civilized were busy advancing the fine things in life and pursuing peace and prosperity, we became a target for barbarians who only focused on acquiring brute force and military strength. Remember the fine land of Gandhara that was home to a sublime Buddhist civilization that was military defeat and destruction by junglees that killed so many Indics that they created mountains of skulls after which the Hindu Kush is named. When our temples were overflowing with Gold and Shankaracharyajee was pondering on advaita vedant, Mohammad Bin Kasim began the Islamic conquest of India. When Somnath was overflowing with gold, uncultured junglees from Afghanistan ran us over and plundered it. In the middle ages when India was producing about 25% of wolrd GDP, Euro barbarians invented guns and focused on deeloping naval power to conquer and enslave us.

    Friends, those who trade away military power for economic gains will, in the end, be left with neither. Nor do they deserve it: those incapable of defending themselves must make way for those who can in this Darwinian struggle for survival. Unlike history, the warning signs are right in front of us, beaned on our televisions right in our drawing rooms. The barbarians already have nukes, they are already at war against us, and they are already attacking our territory.

    Never underestimate the power of destruction of those who vowed to eat grass if necessary but get access to nukes. The fanaticism of barbarians and their overwhelming desire to destroy are a perennial threat to us. As we have seen from history, it may take us centuries to build and achieve the finest that human mind is capable of, but it takes less than a decade of weakness for barbarians to come in and destroy it all. Then why are we making this foolish bargain of trading away military power for economic gains?

    How many times will we the Indians let junglees rape, plunder and pillage our fine civilization before we learn to appreciate the power of the sword to defend ourselves?

  24. Gujjubhai,
    India is not hapless as your post may seem to indicate, unintentional as it may be.If we dont have a credible nuclear deterrent, we are in big trouble. How ever i dont think that this deal was done so that India’s interests could be readily sacrificed.

    If your biggest concern is about future testing, i can understand your concerns even if i dont completely agree with them. However i dont think debate is improved by a tone of alarmism. We did a lot better to stand up to world politics with a lot less leverage. I dont agree with you that we are throwing away our national security concerns for so called energy security.

    Again, if India wanted to test its nuclear capabilities so badly, it may not hesistate to do so no matter what the temporary consequences may be. I have that much faith in our Government no matter how bad it may be in all other areas.

  25. It does look like the govt. and the deal will fall on july 22. In such a scenario,
    the only hope remains with the patriots in the Bjp.

    They should consider four options.

    – Can they renegotiate the deal again under a different regime in the US.

    – Can they allow for this rupture in Indo-US relations that is so vital to deal with both pakistan and china.

    – Can they allow the consolidation and political expansion of the left-islamic combine, if this deal falls, which has destructive implications for indian external and internal security.

    – Can they allow a trivial, whimsy, nothing man like karat to be turned into a hero by voting with the commies to bring down the govt.

    ____________

    If the answer to all the above questions is NO, then they should defy the party whip and vote for the govt. and the deal.

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