Among white swans

On estimating political risk in India

India is the only Asian country outside the East Asian region to be included in the Political & Economic Risk Consultancy’s (PERC) Asian Risk Prospects for 2009 report. According to PERC, India is the riskiest country among those analysed, and it’s risk rating is to increase for the coming financial year. The executive summary says:

India faces some of the biggest risks in 2009 because of uncertainties surrounding the coming general election, rising communal violence and terrorism incidents. The global financial crisis is not an entirely bad thing. The economy needs to take a breather and certain sectors like real estate need to experience sharp price corrections in order to restore India’s competitiveness. India’s underlying attractions to foreign investors should remain no matter who wins the next election. The biggest risk is that a deterioration in political and economic conditions in neighboring Pakistan could aggravate social unrest in India further and hurt national security.[PERC]

General elections, communal violence, terrorism—these are neither new nor too much of a bother for foreign investors. It is perhaps the possibility of the Singur type of public agitations that should be more of a concern. Even so, the geographical variation of political risk among Indian states makes a national level risk assessment neither too accurate nor too meaningful. The analytic framework must focus on estimating political risk in India, than that of India.

So is the case with the Pakistan factor: in addition to the geographic factor, unless the channels by which the turmoil in Pakistan is transferred to India are understood and analysed, the conclusion that it will aggravate social unrest in India is too general to be of much use.

Moreover, the risk factors PERC cites in India’s case are well-known and well-understood. The real issues are of the Black Swans that might turn up among the ostensibly less risky, but considerably more opaque East Asian economies.