Musharraf, the ISI and Bin Laden

Here’s a very well formed opinion from Stratfor (via The Agonist)

“Either Musharraf has the power to force the ISI to do his bidding or he doesn’t. If he does, bin Laden will soon be in U.S. hands, the Pakistani Islamist machine will be in a state of collapse, and — coupled with results in Iran and Saudi Arabia of the Iraq war, the war with al Qaeda can be wrapped up.

“Alternatively, Musharraf cannot deliver what he promised. In this case he throws the Americans out; sides with the Islamists, leading to a U.S. war in Pakistan; is overthrown by an Islamist government with the same result; or Pakistan collapses into chaos, and the United States spends a couple of years sorting through the wreckage.

“It is very hard to imagine the ISI going quietly into that good night. It is also difficult to imagine Musharraf being able to control Pakistan, given the package of promises he has delivered. It seems to us that chaos is the most likely outcome. However, that is not certain. Musharraf does not have a great deal of room for maneuver, but he is a master of using what little room he has. We are entering the key period of the war.” [The Agonist]

The Agonist refers to The Argus – an excellent blog on Central Asia which I’ve added on to my Blogroll Browser.