Predicting a change of guard in Dhaka

And some dazzling ponditry

Nazim Kamran Choudhury is a brave man. For he has dared to predict the outcome of Bangladesh’s coming general elections. Starting with a survey that shows 53% of the voters undecided and plenty of analysis, Choudhury is of the opinion that Shiekh Hasina’s Awami League will be back in power.

If the (Awami League, “AL”) is able to attract even half the undecided voters, they will win the next election. If they are able to convince 55% of the undecided to vote for the Party, they will win by a landslide as large as that the (Bangladesh National Party, “BNP”) got last time around.

…Under these circumstances, I do not see the Greater BNP Alliance (with JI & JP(E)) getting more than 80 seats in the next Parliament. The AL share will be around 180 seats, with about 40 seats going to AL Allies, “others” and Independents. [NKC via Conversations with an Optimist]

4 thoughts on “Predicting a change of guard in Dhaka”

  1. Why is he a brave man? He just based his conclusion on a survey and there are lots of ifs and buts to it. Or you mean to say that he dared to raise his voice against the existing government 😛

  2. Sharique — he’s a brave man because he dared to make a prediction in the notoriously complex world of Bangladeshi politics.

  3. It doesn’t matter what Mr. Choudhury predicts, and it doesn’t matter who wins the next election, the outcome will be the same: corruption, hartals, and antipathy.

  4. One thing I hate about Bangladesh politics is that the Opposition parties ( doesnt matter if it is the BNP or the Awami League ) always accuse the ruling party of being pro India to score brownie political points. So whoever wins, its not going to affect India one way or the other. Which would be a pity , because I would guess Bangladesh’s Relevance to India Index position would be pretty high.

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