Prospects for stability in Pakistan

A brief from our analysts

Predictions, wags will say, are mostly wrong. Especially when they are about the future.

If that is so, the margin of error in predicting the course of events in Pakistan is near infinite. Predictions, though, have to be made. So here is something, composed in the American intelligence community’s national intelligence estimate (NIE) format. Lazy analysts facing deadlines will find it useful.

Download the PDF here.

3 thoughts on “Prospects for stability in Pakistan”

  1. When I first read the post I thought the brief was for Indian policy makers. Are you sure there is no NIE to Bush on LoP situation yet?

    I think it may start off as scenario 3 (with a caveat that Mush may not step down before elections) but end up in scenario 2 fairly quickly.

  2. Chandra,

    Indian policymakers can use it as well. The facts and assessments don’t change. Yes, if the Supreme Court does not throw up a negative verdict, we’ll see Scenario 3 first. They (US, Musharraf and Benazir) are likely to be hoping that this will solve their immediate problems: but their interests diverge. Musharraf would want to continue in S3, while Bhutto would want S1 and the Americans would want to avoid S2.

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