Extracts from our September 2007 assessment…
Scenario 2 – Musharraf ruling under martial law. Musharraf would impose martial law after running out of options to remain both president and army chief. The higher judiciary would be required to re-take their oaths of allegiance, and those refusing to do so would dropped from the Bench. The federal parliament and the provincial assemblies would be suspended and Musharraf would seek to govern through the nazims, or local government officials elected on non-party basis. The Army would be further entrenched in power, occupying key positions in Musharraf’s cabinet as well as in the bureaucracy. Neither Bhutto nor Sharif would be allowed to return to Pakistan, and a crackdown would put political and civil society leaders under arrest.
Imposition of martial law will precipitate an immediate political crisis: popular opposition to Musharraf is likely to take the shape of general strikes and street protests, causing martial law administrators to employ strong repressive measures. Criminal and violent elements – from political party activists to sectarian groups – are likely to use the breakdown of law & order to engage in acts of violence and criminality. While the Army could possibly employ even greater force against insurgents in Balochistan, there is an even chance that the BLA might be able to retaliate by carrying out terrorist attacks in Pakistani cities. The Army will find it even harder to trade off having to carry out operations in the tribal areas and retaining US support.
The imposition of martial law will plunge Pakistan into its deepest political crisis since 1971, when the civil war led to the secession of its eastern wing. The Army itself is likely to come under attack from various quarters leading to large numbers of desertions and mutinies by units sent to tribal areas. While there the chances of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons falling into unauthorised hands is remote, it is possible that nuclear material and technology may be stolen. It is almost certain that Pakistan will witness large scale capital flight, drying of foreign investment and disruptions to the economy. Moreover, the turmoil in Pakistan is likely to spill over into the region in the form of terrorist attacks in India, strengthening of the Taleban in Afghanistan and could even extend to the China’s Xinjiang province.
Update:Glenn Kessler talks to several American experts on Pakistan. Xenia Dormandy gives Musharraf six more months.
Nitin: glad you called it out as Martial Law. This is no Emergency – the constitution and the judiciary have been packed up. The Pak cricket team in India might as well queue up for Indian citizenship 🙂
Don’t know if the world should be happy at your scenario coming true. However I have one question. The Sep ’07 scenario mentioned that Bhutto and Sharif would not be allowed back into the country. However, one has returned, and the other is making loud noises about returning. Would this change your assessment in any way?
libertarian
Indeed. It’s amazing how people don’t see the absurdity of an “emergency” in a military dictatorship. Musharraf has only changed the ‘rules’ he wants the rest of his country to play by! [See this about CNN’s confusion]
Prasanna,
Benazir’s reaction upon touching down in Karachi tells all. She was sitting in the plane, not sure whether she would be arrested, deported or allowed in. So her return, as opposed to her departure, seems to be unscripted. Depending on whether and how much Benazir is willing to play ball, she might get to form the next government. The ball is in her court.
As for Nawaz Sharif, well, this proclamation makes his return even more unlikely.
Martial Law in Pakistan is a calamity. With home nurtered terrosts, talibans and civil socity against Musharaff, he is in a mess. It is feard that he will set his country towards the path of aggression or further divide his country due to civil war. West, especially, US, are ows it to the subcontinent that the bnuclerar aresenal of pakistan should not fall into the hands of Taliban/Terroists. They should take control as a pre-condition to the support of the Dictator. India, on the other hand, should help civil society of Pakistan in all ways, humantirian aid, temporary asylum ,if there is a crack down on and asure it to the Dictator that the Eastern front with India is the “Line of Peace”. india has always helped, suppressed peopple viz, jews, parsis, tibetans and bangladeshis and w should come forward to help disturbed pakistanis in their hour of need.
Prasanna,
It turns out that Benazir’s trip to Dubai may have been enacted for our benefit. If so, it’s not going to fool too many people. Won’t change the reading either.
Nitin,
Great and balanced post.
Some of your readers will find this thought-provoking:
http://satyameva-jayate.org/2007/11/14/emergency-in-pakistan-part-2/